𝐎𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐬𝐢 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐬 𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐤𝐚𝐧 𝐓 𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐠𝐢
https://www.kompas.id/baca/opini/2023/11/09/orientasi-strategis-pendidikan-tinggi?open_from=Artikel_Opini_Page

The economic crisis following the Covid-19 pandemic has been felt by many countries. World economic growth until 2025 is also predicted to slow compared to the previous decade.

Interestingly, low economic growth is experienced by many developed countries. On average, G20 members report that unemployment for highly educated groups is around 4,5 percent. The mismatch between the availability of job opportunities and the graduates produced is one of the reasons. Not only for current needs, but also for the next 5-20 years.

The availability of knowledge workers depends on the strategic industries that are being and will be developed by a country. This will determine the strategic orientation that will be taken by the government or higher education managers. How does Indonesia manage the strategic orientation of its higher education in order to realize a developed Indonesia in 2045?

𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐡𝐮𝐚𝐧
The progress of a country depends on how big the role of knowledge is in the economy (knowledge-based economy). A knowledge-based economy requires the availability of knowledge workers or business people who are the catalyst. As a consequence, higher education offers study programs according to what the market requires (market driven), even though current graduates may no longer be relevant in 5-20 years.

It is understandable that a nation that was advanced two decades ago is now lagging behind because the competencies of its higher education graduates are no longer relevant. Higher education with high added value is needed in the future (market driving).

Harvard economist, Ricardo Hausmann, argues that the complexity of a country's economy determines its economic growth.

The higher the knowledge applied in a product (either goods or services), the greater the complexity of a country's economy. This product will have high added value so that the resulting per capita income will also increase.

This is what makes a knowledge-based economy increasingly important for a country. In the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) issued by the Growth Lab from Harvard, Indonesia has never moved from the 60s in the last 20 years.

In 2000, Indonesia's ECI position was 59th with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of 4.771 US dollars. However, in 2021 it fell to 64th position with GDP per capita of 4.334 US dollars.

In the same period, Thailand rose from 37th to 23rd place, with income more than tripling to US$7.060.

Vietnam increased from 93rd to 61st position, and per capita income increased more than tenfold to 3.757 US dollars.

What is phenomenal is China, rising from 39th position to 18th, with a 13-fold increase in GDP per capita to 12.618 US dollars. Almost reaching the minimum threshold (threshold) as a developed country and the latest country to escape the middle income trap.

𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐠𝐮𝐫 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐤
The country will be able to produce high added value products if its strategic resources, namely humans, are highly educated and contribute to development.

The latest data from the World Bank shows that Indonesia's educated unemployed reached 4,1 percent of the total number of university graduates (PT). Not much different, OECD data shows that 2,5 percent of highly educated people of productive age in Indonesia are unemployed.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported in early 2023 that there were 958.800 people or 12 percent of the openly unemployed in Indonesia who had a higher education background.

Higher Education Statistics (2020) recorded 2.163.682 new students, spread across 4.593 higher education institutions in Indonesia.

One-fifth of new students are enrolled in Education study programs, followed by Economics, Social Affairs and Engineering. Those enrolled in Health and Agriculture study programs are around one tenth of the total students. The total number of registered students throughout Indonesia reached 8,5 million people, spread across 29.413 study programs. At undergraduate level, almost one million students are enrolled in Management study programs.

The Elementary Teacher Education Study Program, which is ranked second in terms of students, has almost half the number of students in the Management study program, followed by Accounting and Law. Informatics Engineering and Civil Engineering are the engineering study programs with the most students.

At the master's level, Legal Studies is the second favorite, followed by Islamic Religious Education, Notary and Accounting. Meanwhile, at the doctoral level, Law Sciences has the most students, followed by Management Sciences, Education Sciences, and Islamic Religious Education.

There were more than 1,5 million higher education graduates in 2020. The education sector produced more than a fifth of existing graduates, followed by Economics, Engineering, Health and Social Affairs. For Agriculture, less than 5 percent.

Apart from being related to the availability of existing study programs and capacity; This data shows people's expectations for the next 5-10 years regarding existing job opportunities. If the number of education graduates remains consistent at the 2020 figure, by 2025 there will be more than two million prospective teachers for primary and secondary education.

With the number of primary to secondary schools around 275.000 throughout Indonesia, and the average tenure of teachers being 30 years, it is certain that we will have an excess supply of teachers in the future. This simple demand and supply analysis can be used by the government and PT managers so that strategic resources are allocated and competent according to the nation's future needs.

𝐎𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐬𝐢 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐬
Strategic orientation provides direction for the strategies and actions that will be used to achieve organizational goals. Will the strategy be focused on producing products that can meet current market needs (market driven) or directing the market to the products produced (market driving).

In the context of higher education, the strategic orientation is in the form of a choice to educate graduates who are needed or perceived to be needed by society today or graduates for the future?

We can listen to China's success story in increasing the complexity of its economy, by increasing the contribution of the knowledge-based economy. China's position increased from 39th to 17th, and GDP per capita grew 12-fold in the last two decades.

When Abrami et al (2014) wrote the article "Why China Can't Innovate" in the Harvard Business Review, most people believed it. However, gradually the digital market, health equipment, and even sustainable technologies are starting to be controlled by Chinese companies.

Data from the 2017 China Statistical Yearbook shows that three million students entered STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) programs.

China is one of the countries with the largest percentage of control in this field. Not only relying on domestic graduates, but also graduates from world-class universities in developed countries—a China plus approach (Greeven et al, 2019).

Since 1978, four million people have studied abroad and 2,2 million graduates have returned to China. Haigui (diaspora returnees) are an important player in China's innovation ecosystem, with training received from the world's best universities.

In fact, before returning to their country, they had worked in various world-class companies, especially Silicon Valley, and brought start-up business models or best practices from the Fortune 500 to the domestic market. As a result, domestic companies are able to compete with world-class companies from developed countries.

In order to guarantee its leadership in the technology sector, the Made in China 2025 program was launched in 2015. There are 10 strategic industries set to transform the economy from low cost to high added value.

Considering that these 10 strategic industries will contribute around 40 percent of China's manufacturing industry, all resources and regulations are directed to support the achievement of the nation's goals. Including PTs with study programs they manage, or the research they produce.

This program was continued with Created in China 2035. To emphasize its position as the world technology standard in these ten strategic industries, the government assigned 12 top universities to develop the College of Future Technology. The main task is to conduct research and develop revolutionary and disruptive technology in the next 10-15 years.

Its existence is targeted to be able to compete with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University in future technology. For example, Peking University is tasked with developing two interdisciplinary fields, namely biomedical engineering and molecular medicine. South China University of Technology opened two new study programs, artificial intelligence and big data technology.

Beihang University is tasked with developing the School of Future Aerospace Technology. The establishment of the School of Future Technology is the first step in preparing Chinese human resources to excel in future technology.

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Education is a long-term investment for a nation, and quality higher education that is capable of producing innovation is the main prerequisite for a country to become a developed country (Lee, 2019).

Selecting, sorting and modifying existing study program curricula, even closing them if they are less relevant, is a must. It's not necessarily what is popular now that graduates will need in the future. This is part of market driven. It is time for the government to evaluate the proportion of study programs and students, including the potential contribution of graduates in the future.

Providing a long-term vision for education is imperative. The government is obliged to determine what strategic industries will be developed. To prepare for this, the government and assigned HEI managers need to establish future-oriented study programs. Upskilling existing teaching staff and recruiting new teachers is part of market driving. Of course, long-term funding commitments provide certainty and sustainability of the nation's competitiveness in the future.

Balancing market driven and market driving as a strategic orientation for higher education in Indonesia is an absolute must. Human resources as the nation's strategic resource play a central role in increasing the complexity of the Indonesian economy, in achieving progress by 2045.